Shorter Michael Barone: the Obama Campus Thugocracy will jam your phone lines!

Actually, the verbatim Michael Barone is much better:

“I need you to go out and talk to your friends and talk to your neighbors,” Barack Obama told a crowd in Elko, Nev. “I want you to talk to them whether they are independent or whether they are Republican. I want you to argue with them and get in their face.” Actually, Obama supporters are doing a lot more than getting into people’s faces. They seem determined to shut people up.

That’s what Obama supporters, alerted by campaign emails, did when conservative Stanley Kurtz appeared on Milt Rosenberg’s WGN radio program in Chicago. Kurtz had been researching Obama’s relationship with unrepentant Weather Underground terrorist William Ayers in Chicago Annenberg Challenge papers in the Richard J. Daley Library in Chicago—papers that were closed off to him for some days, apparently at the behest of Obama supporters.

Obama fans jammed WGN’s phone lines and sent in hundreds of protest emails. The message was clear to anyone who would follow Rosenberg’s example. We will make trouble for you if you let anyone make the case against The One.

I’ll get back to that “in your face” moment a little bit later on.  For now, I want you all to contemplate the horror of hundreds of Obama thugs sending in protest emails and jamming WGN’s phone lines.  These jackboot tactics were apparently so effective as to shut down WGN altogether, depriving Stanley Kurtz and Milton Rosenberg of any opportunity to inform listeners that Bill Ayers secretly wrote Dreams from My Father while teaching Obama how to blow up stuff.  The message was clear: anyone who shows that Obama, like Osama, has a friend who bombed the Pentagon will receive a sternly worded email.

That odd rattling noise you hear?  That, my friends, is the sound of pearls being clutched all over the length and breadth of Wingnuttia.

Barone then churns out a series of random Drudge-generated paragraphs that go like this: members of the Barack Obama Truth Squad who point out that “Obama is a secret Muslim” is an untrue statement are shutting down free speech; the fairness doctrine is bad; “NBC and its parent, General Electric, don’t want people to hear speech that attacks liberals” (that’s a direct quote!); card check legislation is also bad.  Barone forgot to mention that someone once threw a pie at David Horowitz, but maybe he’s saving that for the next devastating installment.  Anyway, here’s the stunning climax:

Today’s liberals seem to be taking their marching orders from other quarters. Specifically, from the college and university campuses where administrators, armed with speech codes, have for years been disciplining and subjecting to sensitivity training any students who dare to utter thoughts that liberals find offensive. The campuses that used to pride themselves as zones of free expression are now the least free part of our society.

Obama supporters who found the campuses congenial and Obama himself, who has chosen to live all his adult life in university communities, seem to find it entirely natural to suppress speech that they don’t like and seem utterly oblivious to claims that this violates the letter and spirit of the First Amendment. In this campaign, we have seen the coming of the Obama thugocracy, suppressing free speech, and we may see its flourishing in the four or eight years ahead.

OK, first, I want to point out that there’s nothing racially charged about the phrase “Obama thugocracy,” because, as Stanley Kurtz’s groundbreaking research has shown, one of Obama’s mentors did indeed openly embrace “thug life.” And I want to acknowledge that Barack Hussein Obama has, in fact, chosen to live all his adult life in university communities: Chicago, Springfield, Washington, D.C.—these are quintessential college towns, cocoons for sensitivity-training, free-speech-suppressing liberal fascists who never grow up.

But now it’s time to go back to that “in your face” moment.  Here it is, in all its chilling thugaliciousness (NSFW, and if you have kids, now’s the time to put them to bed):

At the 0:26 mark:

I need you to go out and talk to your friends and talk to your neighbors.  I want you to talk to them whether they are independent or whether they are Republican. I want you to argue with them and get in their face. If they tell you that well, we’re not sure where he stands on guns, I want you to say he believes in the Second Amendment.  If they tell you, well, he’s gonna raise your taxes, you say no he’s not, he’s gonna lower them.

My sources tell me that when Michael Barone first saw this video, he was so terrified he lost consciousness and had to be revived with smelling salts.  Apparently it reminded him of a traumatic moment from his own college days at Harvard in the mid-60s, when he said “Martin Luther King, Jr. is a dangerous radical who will force us all to become Negro,” whereupon a classmate replied, “uh, that’s actually not true,” thereby suppressing Barone’s free speech.  For here, as you can plainly see, Obama is telling his supporters to inform their neighbors that he supports the Second Amendment and will lower taxes! This, my friends, is the very essence of liberal fascism.  By telling his adoring acolytes to “knock on some doors” and “make some phone calls,” Obama is undermining the First Amendment whatchamacallit that is so essential to our democracy.  Where will it end?  Don’t bother to answer that one—you know perfectly well where it ends.

So now it’s time to give Obama his secret marching orders.  Hell, yeah!  We campus liberals haven’t trained him from his earliest days as a Muslim child in the madrassas of Upper Manchuria for nothing, you know. Senator Obama: once elected, you will proceed to enact the Stealth Agenda.  This Stealth Agenda will include, but not be limited to:

-- universal health care for all Americans;

-- the formation of workers’ collectives in all key industries;

-- punishment for plutocrats!  every corporate official involved in every corporate scandal from Enron to the financial meltdown will be put to work paving roads and rebuilding infrastructure;

-- restoration of the Caliphate!  this time with soul!

-- compulsory gay marriage, to be conducted by lottery;

-- one required lower-division course in “diverse cultures and traditions.”

You heard it here first, folks.

And why am I putting this up on a blog if it’s a “Stealth Agenda”?  Because it’s too late to stop us now! Bwah hah hah, etc.

Update: Ah, I see that the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has gotten on board with the Stealth Agenda program, by awarding a Nobel Prize to Paul Krugman for his groundbreaking work on forming workers’ collectives and devising punishments for plutocrats.  The Obama thugocracy applauds this wise and timely award!

In what could set an important precedent, federal officials assured a big Japanese bank late Sunday that its planned investment in the embattled Wall Street giant Morgan Stanley would be protected, The New York Times's Andrew Ross Sorkin reported, citing people involved in the talks.

After two days of tense negotiations, Treasury officials urged a hesitant Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group to proceed with its $9 billion investment in Morgan Stanley, which has sought the capital infusion to reassure investors and customers about its stability, The Times reported.

The deal is considered a crucial step in the government's strategy for revitalizing the financial system by luring outside investment while it considers buying stock in banks directly. The transaction's failure would deal a blow to that effort and potentially unnerve the financial markets.

More on Economy

At the end of a weekend when nearly all of the world's major bankers and finance ministers gathered in Washington to stanch the global credit crisis, there was no assurance that credit would flow when markets reopen this week.

In an effort to get credit moving, European leaders on Sunday promised to guarantee new loans to banks, which have stopped lending to one another as the crisis has deepened. But they left it up to each nation's government to provide details of how its own banking system would be protected. Australia also announced such guarantees, but there was no similar announcement from the United States, where officials declined to say what action, if any, they would take.

Until the credit crisis intensified after Lehman Brothers failed, banks lent freely to each other. This assured that each bank would have money if needed for any number of business purposes, like lending to their clients.

More on Economy

HONG KONG — Global stock markets rebounded strongly on Monday after last week's historic sell-off as governments from Europe to Australia and the U.S. intensified efforts to ease a financial crisis that threatened to the throw the world into recession.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index, which tumbled more than 7 percent Friday, soared 1,434.33 points, or 9.69 percent, to finish at 16,231.20.

Australian and Singapore indices jumped more than 5 percent, while South Korean and Chinese benchmarks added around 3.7 percent.

As markets opened in Europe, Britain's FTSE-100 shot up 5.6 percent, Germany's DAX climbed 6.4 percent and France's CAC-40 advanced 7 percent.

In Japan, where the Nikkei 225 tanked nearly 10 percent Friday to close out its worst week in history, trading was closed for a public holiday.

Markets around the world sprung to life as nations expanded their efforts to save a financial system, reeling from seizing credit markets and risky debt, that threatened to throw the global economy into recession.

On Monday five central banks _ including the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank _ unveiled new measures to thaw frozen credit markets and bolster funding to banks. The Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank said they would provide unlimited U.S. dollar funds to financial institutions. The Bank of Japan said it was considering similar measures.

In Britain, three of the country's largest banks _ Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC, Lloyds TSB Group PLC and HBOS PLC _ announced plans to take up to 37 billion pounds (US$63 billion) of government money to boost their balance sheets.

Earlier in the day, Australia said it would guarantee bank and other lender deposits for three years.

The moves came after leaders of the 15 euro-zone countries said Sunday they would guarantee new bank debt until the end of 2009, allow governments to help banks by buying preferred shares, and vowed to rescue important failing banks through emergency recapitalizion.

The global effort brought a measure of relief after investor panic sent world equities markets spiraling last week in one of the steepest declines in decades.

"The government measures genuinely do help market confidence," said Daniel McCormack, a strategist for Macquarie Securities in Hong Kong. "We are reaching a point where policy could soon start to have an impact on the credit markets and once it does that will help the equity markets."

In the U.S., investors were waiting to see if the Treasury Department's newly announced plan buy equity in troubled banks would help stabilize the volatility on Wall Street. Lawmakers have urged quick action by President George W. Bush on the effort, to be funded by the US$700 billion bailout he signed Oct. 3.

Wall Street stock futures showed a rebound was in store for the major indexes ahead of the opening bell on Monday. Dow Jones industrials futures rose 331 points, or 3.9 percent, to 8,701. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 51.7, or 4 percent, to 1,334; and Standard & Poor's 500 futures added 43, or 4.8 percent, to 934.04.

In a volatile session Friday in New York, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 128, or 1.49 percent, to 8,451.49, gyrating within a 1,000 point range. The average had its worst week on record in both point and percentage terms.

Financials helped lead Monday's advance in Asia, with leading Chinese lender Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, or ICBC, soaring 13.6 percent. Leading Australian banks such as Commonwealth Bank of Australia and ANZ Banking Group Ltd were also up sharply. Commodity issues gained as well.

Elsewhere in the region, Indonesia's key index, down sharply in early trade, gained 0.9 percent after the lifting of a trading suspension, imposed last Wednesday amid a freefall in share prices. The upswing followed government measures to free up liquidity, including easing regulations for share buybacks and corporate financial reserve limits.

Taiwan's benchmark index closed down 2.15 percent after the market was shut Friday for a national holiday.

Oil prices recovered, with light, sweet crude for November delivery up US$3.33 at US$81.03. The contract fell Friday US$8.89 to US$77.70, the lowest price since Sept. 10, 2007.

In currencies, the greenback gained against the yen to 100.57. The 15-nation euro bought US$1.3532.

More on Economy

WASHINGTON — The Bush administration said Monday it is moving quickly to implement a $700 billion rescue program, including consulting with private law firms on how to buy ownership shares in a broad number of banks to help thaw frozen lending and get the economy moving again.

The administration announced the selection of a team of interim managers, picked an outside firm to help run the program and tapped Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to head the oversight board guarding against conflicts of interest.

Neel Kashkari, the assistant Treasury secretary who is interim head of the program, said officials were developing the guidelines that will govern the purchase of bad assets and was consulting with six specialist law firms on how the government will take partial ownership of banks.

"We are moving quickly _ but methodically _ and I am confident we are building the foundation for a strong, decisive and effective program," Kaskhari said in a speech Monday to the Institute of International Bankers.

Kashkari, however, provided few details about how the program will actually buy bad assets and ownership shares in banks. He focused mainly on the nuts and bolts of getting the program running.

He said five veteran government officials had been chosen as interim heads of key components of the program including Tom Bloom, currently, the chief financial officer at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, to serve as the chief financial officer for the rescue program.

Kashkari said seven policy teams at Treasury had been created to focus on the different aspects of the program including the effort to buy bad assets such as mortgage-backed securities and another team to work on buying residential mortgages which he said were currently clogging the books of regional banks. Another team will focus on the program to buy equity stakes in private banks as a way to boost their capital.

To help structure the program to buy bank stock, Kashkari said Treasury had consulted with six specialty law firms to obtain advice and had chosen Simpson Thatcher & Bartlett LLP to move forward with greater details.

More on Wall Street Crisis

And the NY Times must be kvelling. The just-announced story:

The American economist Paul Krugman won the 2008 Nobel prize for economics for bringing together analysis of trade patterns and where economic activity takes place, the prize committee said on Monday.

You can read more Krugman here.

Al Gore? Paul Krugman? Perhaps our long national nightmare really is coming to an end.

Update [2008-10-13 7:53:11 by DemFromCT]:

Daily Kos book review of The Conscience of a Liberal.

Krugman's political realization in recent years that liberal policies need a progressive movement, and his embrace of organized labor and the netroots as pillars of a progressive movement are a good part of his politicla phlosophy.

What makes progressive institutions in to a movement isn't money; It's self-perception.  Many Americans with more or less liberal beliefs now consider themselves members of a common movement, with the shared goals of limiting inequality and defending democratic principles.  The movement reserves it's greatest scorn for Democrats who won't make a stand against the right, who give in on Social Security privatization or escalation in Iraq.

Today's Daily Kos Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama up over McCain  . All trackers are data from three days prior to posting, with the R2K numbers from today (yesterday's numbers in parentheses) and the other trackers from yesterday (previous day's data). LV=likely voter, RV=registered voter.

                 Obama      McCain    MoE +/-   RV/LV
Today
Research 2000:  52 (53)    40 (40)    3         LV
Reuters/Zogby:  48 (49)    44 (43)    2.8       LV
ABC-WaPo:       53 (50)    43 (46)    3         LV

Yesterday
Diageo/Hotline: 49 (50)    41 (40)    3.4       LV
Rasmussen:      51 (52)    45 (45)    2         LV
Gallup:         50 (51)    43 (42)    2         RV

On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +12 Fri, +13 Sat and +11 Sun. Post-debate polling shows no benefit for McCain. Obama's percentage has been at or above 50 since 9/29. +13 is Obama's largest three day lead in the R2K poll.

The new  ABC/WaPo reads like a "closing the deal" affair:

Overall, Obama is leading 53 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, and for the first time in the general-election campaign, voters gave the Democrat a clear edge on tax policy and providing strong leadership.

More:

McCain has made little headway in his attempts to convince voters that Obama is too "risky" or too "liberal." Rather, recent strategic shifts may have hurt the Republican nominee, who now has higher negative ratings than his rival and is seen as mostly attacking his opponent rather than addressing the issues that voters care about. Even McCain's supporters are now less enthusiastic about his candidacy, returning to levels not seen since before the Republican National Convention.

More:

Registered voters by a 24-point margin, 59-35 percent, now say McCain is more focused on attacking his opponent rather than addressing the issues. That’s grown from a roughly even 48-45 percent split on this question in late August.

There's far less criticism of the tone of Obama's campaign: Registered voters by 68-26 percent say he's mainly addressing the issues, not attacking his opponent, a slightly more positive rating than in August.

            Candidate is mainly:
           Addressing    Attacking
           the issues   his opponent
Now:
McCain        35%           59
Obama         68            26

8/22:
McCain        45%           48
Obama         64            29

Note the expected move byGallup to a likely voter (LV) model:

Obama's current advantage is slightly less when estimating the preferences of likely voters, which Gallup will begin reporting on a regular basis between now and the election. Gallup is providing two likely voter estimates to take into account different turnout scenarios.

The first likely voter model is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter assumptions, which determine respondents' likelihood to vote based on how they answer questions about their current voting intention and past voting behavior. According to this model, Obama's advantage over McCain is 50% to 46% in Oct. 9-11 tracking data.

The second likely voter estimate is a variation on the traditional model, but is only based on respondents' current voting intention. This model would take into account increased voter registration this year and possibly higher turnout among groups that are traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and racial minorities (Gallup will continue to monitor and report on turnout indicators by subgroup between now and the election). According to this second likely voter model, Obama has a 51% to 45% lead over McCain.

The first LV model is 2004, and the second is 2008, in all probability. That's because of new voters, young voters, cell phone voters, etc. who may fail the first LV screen by not having voted before. This will probably cause a minute amount of 'tightening' in an otherwise stable race.

Here are some interesting Newsweek poll factoids compiled by pollingreport.com. A sampling:

• 58% of people who have seen McCain ads think they are "misleading or   distorting".  Only 36% said the same about Obama's ads.
• 47% of those surveyed think McCain shared their values
• 54% think he would "fit in well" with their local community
• 54% think he's honest and trustworthy
• 51% think he has the "right judgment and temperament" to make a good president
• 60% think he will stand for what's right, even if it's not politically popular and just 42% think he can bring the country together

In contrast:

• 59% think Obama shares their values
• 63% think he would fit in in their community
• 62% think he's honest and trustworthy (+8 over McCain)
• 66% think he has the right temperament and judgment (+14! over McCain)
• 62% think Obama can bring the country together (+20 over McCain)

A recent Gallup commentary answers why we are not talking about Bob Barr:

A recent Gallup Poll in which four third-party candidates were explicitly listed for voters along with the two major-party candidates found only minimal support for any candidate other than John McCain or Barack Obama.

For a good review of the Bradley effect, the Reverse Bradley effect, and other things to wring your hands over until the day after the election, see this NY Times piece by Kate Zernike.

Whatever its causes, the Bradley gap seems to be disappearing.

Richard Dunham at the Houston Chronicle summarizes every polling chestnut and bromide (in a helpful way - good to have it in one place.)

• In every election since the Nixon presidency, Americans have chosen the candidate they feel is more likable. After the second presidential debate, an Oct. 7 CNN poll found that viewers found Obama more likable, 65 percent to 28 percent.
• According to a Democracy Corps poll released Friday, 46 percent of Americans say there are "just too many questions (about Obama) to take a chance on him as president." In the closing weeks of the campaign, McCain will try to nudge that number up past 50 percent.
• Four years ago, Republicans rode a wave of enthusiasm for George W. Bush and a lack of Democratic excitement about John Kerry into a 3 percentage point win. But the GOP enthusiasm edge seems to have evaporated. A Diageo/Hotline poll released Friday found that 70 percent of Democrats enthusiastically support Obama; 49 percent of Republicans eagerly back McCain.

None of the above is a guarantee, given that no election is really the same as any other, and many precedents will be shattered this year.

Finally, senior polling expert John Oliver explores a neglected demo.

With her three Emmy Awards, her ubiquitous American Express commercials, and especially her must-see Sarah Palin impersonations, Tina Fey is not just the hottest star on NBC; she is about the hottest star in show business at the moment.

So where is "30 Rock?" The hugely praised but ratings-challenged comedy has yet to return to NBC even as interest in its creator and star, Ms. Fey, has exploded. Several executives inside NBC asked last week why NBC's entertainment division was waiting until Oct. 30 to get "30 Rock" back on the air.

Ben Silverman, the co-chairman of NBC Entertainment, said, "If we knew then what we know today about how hot Tina was going to be, would we do it differently? Maybe," he said.

More on NBC

STOCKHOLM, Sweden — Paul Krugman, the Princeton University scholar and New York Times columnist, won the Nobel economic prize Monday for his analysis of how economies of scale can affect trade patterns and the location of economic activity.

Krugman has been a harsh critic of the Bush administration and the Republican Party in The New York Times, where he writes a regular column and has a blog called "Conscience of a Liberal."

He has come out forcefully against John McCain during the economic meltdown, saying the Republican candidate is "more frightening now than he was a few weeks ago" and earlier that the GOP has become "the party of stupid."

The 55-year-old American economist was the lone of winner of the 10 million kronor ($1.4 million) award and the latest in a string of American researchers to be honored. It was only the second time since 2000 that a single laureate won the prize, which is typically shared by two or three researchers.

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences praised Krugman for formulating a new theory to answer questions about free trade.

"What are the effects of free trade and globalization? What are the driving forces behind worldwide urbanization? Paul Krugman has formulated a new theory to answer these questions," the academy said in its citation.

"He has thereby integrated the previously disparate research fields of international trade and economic geography," it said.

The award, known as the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, is the last of the six Nobel prizes announced this year and is not one of the original Nobels. It was created in 1968 by the Swedish central bank in Alfred Nobel's memory.

Besides his work as an economist at Princeton University in New Jersey, where he has been since 2000, Krugman also writes about politics and inequality in the U.S. and other topics for The New York Times. He has also written for Foreign Affairs, the Harvard Business Review and Scientific American.

Commenting on the global economic meltdown, Krugman told a news conference in Stockholm by telephone from the United States that some of his research was linked to currency crises and related issues.

"This is terrifying," he said, comparing it to the financial crisis that gripped Asia in the 1990s.

He said winning the Nobel award won't change his approach to research and writing.

"The prize will enhance visibility," he said, "but I hope it does not lead me into going to a lot of purely celebratory events, aside from the Nobel presentation itself."

Krugman's work on new trade theory garnered him the John Bates Clark medal from the American Economic Association in 1991. That prize is given every two years to an economist under the age of 40.

The citation said Krugman's approach is based on the premise that many goods and services can be produced at less cost in long series, a concept known as economies of scale. His research showed the effects of that on trade patterns and on the location of economic activity.

In contrast to his treatment of U.S. financial officials, Krugman has praised leaders in Britain for their response to the global financial crisis.

In an Oct. 12 article on the New York Times' Web site, Krugman wrote about the global financial meltdown and its reach into Europe, saying that British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Chancellor Alistair Darling "defined the character of the worldwide rescue effort, with other wealthy nations playing catch-up."

Whereas U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson rejected a "sort of temporary part-nationalization" involving governments giving financial institutions more money in return for a share of ownership, the British government "went straight to the heart of the problem ... with stunning speed."

Krugman said the major European economies have "in effect declared themselves ready to follow Britain's lead, injecting hundreds of billions of dollars into banks while guaranteeing their debts."

"And whaddya know," Krugman continued, "Mr. Paulson _ after arguably wasting several precious weeks _ has also reversed course, and now plans to buy equity stakes rather than bad mortgage securities."

The Nobel Prizes in medicine, chemistry, physics, literature and economics will be handed out in Stockholm by Sweden's King Carl XVI on Dec. 10, the anniversary of prize founder Alfred Nobel's death in 1896. The Nobel Peace Prize is handed out in Oslo, Norway, on the same date.

More on Economy

More Monday morning quarterbacking.

William Kristol: McCain sucks. He's holding me Palin back.

Fred Hiatt:  

Imagine if he waged his campaign based on respect for his opponent and the process.

Imagine if I ran my editorials that way.

Ross Douthat:

The best reason for even the most disaffected right-winger to root for a McCain victory is simple: To the extent that much of the progressive agenda is a program in search of a crisis to justify its implementation, an election that delivers a liberal candidate who's adored by the media to White House, gives him huge majorities in both houses of Congress, and presents him with a worldwide state of emergency in which to govern, has the potential to be not just another loss for conservatives, but a once-in-a-generation defeat.

Let's hope so.

Andrew Sullivan:

At some point, the McCain campaign will realize that their veep candidate is a couple of sandwiches short of a picnic.

Nathan Thornburgh:

But the Branchflower report still makes for good reading, if only because it convincingly answers a question nobody had even thought to ask: Is the Palin administration shockingly amateurish? Yes, it is. Disturbingly so.

Trudy Rubin:

The U.S. needs a unifier. McCain and Palin are divisive.

Josh Harkinson:

Plus, it's not even a sure thing that gay marriage sank the Dems in 2004. Kerry pollster Mark Mellman has found that anti-gay-marriage ballot initiatives didn't boost voter turnout for either party. Moreover, political scientists at mit found that Bush's share of the 2004 vote increased in most battleground states, but not the three that had gay marriage bans on the ballot. Stephen Ansolabehere, one of the study's authors, concludes that the gay marriage referenda may have given Kerry a bump. "That suggests there might even be some sort of backlash against this kind of politics," he notes.

Mark Steyn: Why make fun when you can just print what they say?

The day after the most-recent debate I bumped into two Obama supporters in St Johnsbury, Vt. They said isn't it great that he's on course to win. Well, they were cute chicks, and I know an obvious pick-up line when I hear one, so I stopped to chat. God Almighty, it was like reverse Viagra: After 10 minutes of Babes For Barack, I never want to meet a female woman of the opposite sex for the rest of my life. Their basic pitch was:

"How do you solve a problem? Like, Obama!

How do you hold a moonbeam in your hand?"

John McCain, who admitted on Sunday that "the economy has hurt us a little bit in the last week or two," is desperately trying to turn the political page.

On Friday the Arizona Republican sought to calm down the vitriol emanating from his crowds, facing down a few supporters who criticized Barack Obama. Then, on Saturday, his campaign leaked word to Politico that he would be introducing a bold new economic agenda on Monday.

And yet, as soon as the Senator began leaving behind last week's shadows, he stepped right back into the internal confusion and mixed messaging that has haunted his presidential run to this point.

Late Sunday evening word emerged from McCain headquarters that, in fact, there would be no bold new economic proposal to throw on the table.

"We do not have any immediate plans to announce any policy proposals outside of the proposals that John McCain has announced, and the certain proposals that would result as economic news continues to come our way," said spokesman Tucker Bounds.

Then McCain gave a set of interviews that could very well overshadow the agenda he had planned for the days ahead.

The first took place on the set of a local Virginia news station. Read a quote from the chair of the state's Republican Party -- who compared Obama to Osama bin Laden since they both "have friends that have bombed the Pentagon" -- McCain claimed he didn't have enough information to judge whether the remark was appropriate.

"I have to look at the context of his remarks," he responded. "I have always repudiated any comments that have been made that were inappropriate about Senator Obama. The fact is that William Ayers was a terrorist and bomber and unrepentant. I don't care about that. But, Sen. Obama ought be the candid and truthful about his relationship with Mr. Ayers..."

Damning as an appeal for context may be, in actuality McCain seemingly didn't know that his own spokeswoman had condemned the remarks as "not appropriate."

"While Barack Obama is associated with domestic terrorist William Ayers, the McCain campaign disagrees with the comparison that Jeff Frederick made," said Gail Gitcho.

Around the same time as the Virginia interview aired, the Spanish-language Univision published its own sit down with McCain, in which the Arizonan suggested that there was a direct connection between the September 11 terrorist attacks and the war in Iraq.

Asked by the host whether he agreed with Barack Obama that "the Iraq war had nothing to do with the terrorist attacks of 9/11," McCain replied:

"No. We invaded a country that every intelligence agency said was developing weapons of mass destruction. Think of Saddam Hussein in power with oil at 100 dollars a barrel, and all that entails with his commitment which when after he was captured, he stated categorically that he would acquire weapons of mass destruction, and he would use them wherever he could. Now, Iraq--"

"But he had nothing to do with 9/11," the hosted interjected.

"He had a lot to do with invading his neighbor Kuwait, and we had to go to war and fight there," McCain replied. "He had a lot to do with using weapons of mass destruction, he used them previously, so there's no doubt about his commitment to get them."

Needless to say, such a statement seems likely to be met with resistance both within intelligence communities and among McCain's opposition. Trailing in the polls, and determined to "whip" Obama's "you-know-what," the Republican nominee for president can ill afford such controversy at this stage of the election.

More on John McCain

Watch "Hot Seat" From Liberty Mutual's Responsibility Project

Polls have come to dominate the media's horse race coverage of political campaigns. Pundits and reporters constantly use them to tell us who's hot and who's not -- but skip over the fact that plummeting response rates and variables like undecided voters and margins of error often render these polls useless as anything other than lightweight diversions on par with horoscopes and political betting lines. Below you'll find a slew of polling, astrological, and betting information that will hopefully help the polling junkies in the media keep polls in the proper perspective.

We've also updated HuffPollstrology to bring you regular takes from astrologers on the state of the presidential race. And we've included a section that digs deeper into how polls are conducted. And to make sure we're really investigating, we're going to add various blogs and articles that cast a skeptical eye on polling. Read on for lots of HuffPollstrology:

ASTROLOGER PHILIP SEDGWICK LOOKS AT THE CANDIDATES - **NEW POST 10/13**:

 

The media pants for red meat pending the final Presidential Debate. Citizens on Main Street want facts. The rest of the world wants a cool cucumber who knows how to make economic gardens peacefully grow. About five hours before the debate commences, Mercury, planet of communication, stock market pick-pockets, and lining up facts all in a row, resumes "direct" motion. While Mercury no longer bears the appearance of backing up, the annoying beeping sound ceases and Mercury stands still, preparing to march forward and straighten things out. Such pivot days are big. Announcements held back often sneak out. Declarations reverse current courses - flip flopping as it's called in this arena - and the stutter/stammer syndrome increases. Ignoring the ongoing, sure to get juicier Palin saga, here's the debate forecast.

McCain

As in the last debate, the Moon in Taurus, a methodical Earth sign, generally favors McCain. There's no reason to expect he converts this trend to his benefit, especially since the Moon and Mars stand off in the horoscope of the debate, applying tension to his anger/action planet Mars. The agitation in McCain's face builds immeasurably over the next week to ten days. This debate is only the precursor. Unless McCain conjures economically sound plans to restore the economy that do not support corporate/Wall Street raiders, the torpedoes head straight at his ship and it=s too late for evasive maneuvering given the target angle. With the Saturn-Neptune patterns, pundits can only wonder, does he want to lose? Is this like the recent Boston Legal where Denny Crane wanted to lose his concealed weapon case so he could petition the Supreme Court? Too bad Arizona allows concealed weapons, but given certain cries of election fraud to come with Jupiter-Eris patterns, what will the Supreme Court do if there's a McCain v. Voters of Florida?

Obama

Like McCain, Obama picks up an emotionally evocative edge from the Moon-Mars pattern overhead. Now, he's pissed. With his Mars to Neptune - the masking, framing, and present-it-as-you-will magic maker - his throttle should be even and constant in forcefulness. Likely his demeanor comes off as powerful and solidifies his position as one who cannot be pushed. People will expect him to know where the bottom of the market is, which according to astrological signatures could be today, Halloween or Election Day. He doesn't know, but if he reveals a series of strategies of "what if" economic recovery scenarios, the election will be locked in, and just in time for basketball season - a slam dunk.

POLLING METHODOLOGY: New Polls Added 10/8

HuffPost is delving into the gray area of how polls are conducted. Below is an analysis of how pollsters come up with the numbers through response rates. The definition of a response rate is taken from Arianna's 1998 column "Investigating The Pollsters."

The key to polling's accuracy is the principle of "equal probability of selection." But if larger and larger numbers among those randomly selected refuse to participate, this principle no longer applies.

We asked polling companies to please give us the response and refusal rates for their polls listed below.

Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby Poll, Conducted October 5-October 7

Results: McCain 45%, Obama 47% Method: 1,220 likely voters "Can you please give us the response and refusal rates for your most recent national poll?": A Zogby representative told us, "26.6 response rate phone, 73.4 refusal rate phone."

Zogby Internet Poll, Conducted October 2-October 3

Results: McCain 44%, Obama 48% Method: 2,873 likely voters polled using an online panel. "Can you please give us the response and refusal rates for your most recent national poll?": A Zogby representative told us, "6.1% of those who received an invitation completed the survey."

DailyKos/Research 2000 Poll, Conducted October 5-October 7

Results: McCain 41%, Obama 51% Method: 1,100 likely voters polled over three days. "Can you please give us the response and refusal rates for your most recent national poll?": A Research 2000 representative explained the methodology of the poll, saying that it was a rolling poll with a baseline of 1,100 likely voters, taking approximately 355 to 365 calls per night and throwing out the oldest numbers. "I would say that [we take] one in every eight calls on average," he said, attributing this rate to a combination of callers "telling us to go to hell" and callers not meeting their standard of a "likely voter" through a name recognition test.

Gallup Daily Poll Conducted October 5-October 7

Results: McCain 41%, Obama 52% Method: 2,747 registered voters polled over three days. "Can you please give us the response and refusal rates for your most recent national poll?": 14% response rate, 26% refusal rate. This is an average rate for this particular series of polls, technically defined as the CASRO rate which is similar to the AAPOR-III response rate (these definitions can be found here).

Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll Conducted October 5-October 7

Results: Obama 51%, McCain 45% Method: Sample of 3,000 likely voters over three days. "Can you please give us the response and refusal rates for your most recent national poll?": A representative for Rasmussen told us, "We don't give out that information".

George Washington University (Lake/Tarrance) Poll, Conducted October 2-October 7

Results: Obama 49%, McCain 45% Method: Sample of 800 likely voters. "Will it be possible for us to get the response and refusal rates for your most recent national poll?": After a few calls, a representative for Tarrance told us, "It's not going to be. Write what you need to write, but it's not going to be. We're four weeks out from a campaign and quite frankly this is not anywhere near my priority list. Okay?"

  Mccain vs obama in the General election
mccain 43%
Gallup Daily VIRGO
August 29, 1936

Even you may be tired of considering option after option. Restricting these to just two might help. Even then though close colleagues might wish that you'd arrive at a conclusion and not involve them in apparently endless debate. An expert could help you focus. A sudden squall in the form of a colleague deciding to quit could bring on a different kind of headache.

23.0%
chance of
winning
obama 50%
Gallup Daily LEO
August 4, 1961

In lending support, you should perhaps take particular care not to inflict physical damage either on yourself or on furniture that happens to be in the way. There is also potential danger linked to travel. It may be that you're not fully concentrating on tasks in hand. Sharp implements require particular care - or perhaps someone born under Scorpio who manages to say precisely the wrong thing, could provoke reaction or physical emergency. On the positive side, however, you could make a breakthrough and remember exactly where you left an item that's been apparently lost for some weeks.

77.4%
chance of
winning weather report East Brooklyn, NY
Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 78F. Winds WNW at 5 to 10 mph. south

Charlotte, NC
Intervals of clouds and sunshine in the morning with more clouds for later in the day. Warm. High 82F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph. midwest Nashville, TN

Mostly cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. Cold. High 46F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph.

west

San Clemente, CA
Mainly sunny. High 76F. Winds NE at 10 to 20 mph.

Sources:

General Election Poll: Gallup Daily Tracking

For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.

The general-election results are based on combined data from Oct. 9-11, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,783 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

For results based on this sample of 2,134 likely voters (based on the model taking into account current voting intention and past voting behavior), the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

For results based on this sample of 2,286 likely voters (based on the model taking into account current voting intention only), the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

 

Horoscopes: horoscopes.co.uk

Weather: Weather.com

Betting Lines: Intrade Prediction Markets

Tonight's Rescue Ranger Posse includes Yashua, Got a Grip, vcmvo2, dopper0189, mem from somerville and the YatPundit. The Robes of Objectivity are at the laundry and the Editmobile is in the shop for some badly needed maintenance, so claude, girt in the Jockstrap of Truth, handles the reins of the Editor's Chariot.

Rescue Rangers sifted through 510 diaries today to find these gems that got overlooked:

CONCERNING THE CAMPAIGN:

• Avenging Angel assembles a great collection of ammunition that describes why McCain's Troubles with Economists Continue to Mount. (mem from somerville)
• Jay Elias reflects on the hypocrisy of the Republicans casting aspersions on Obama's tenuous ties to Ayers by asking Who Really Pals Around With Terrorists? (Got a Grip)
• First-time diarist Running2Ks explores the complexities of relationships impacted by political choices in Lost a friend and a cousin, gained a father and a sister-in-law. (mem from somerville)
• Willinois explains how voter registration efforts are supposed to work in My Project Vote experience. (YatPundit)
• Talking to Republican family and friends can be challenging, as JDWolverton shows us in It's Hard to Be Republican. (YatPundit)

SPOTLIGHT ON THE HORRORS:

• Continuing to bring us top-flight information on the torture policies of the current administration, Valtin reveals Major New Torture Archive Gives 1st Peek at SERE SOP. (YatPundit)
• Stephen Daugherty highlights some important numbers to take note of in trying to understand the subprime mortgage disaster in 84, 83, 24, or Why the Fannie Mae Charge is a lie. (Got a Grip)
• therealcervantes summarizes all the news that isn't reported about Iraq, with a bonus feature on Afghanistan, in Today in Iraq. (vcmvo2)

MAKING IT PERSONAL:

• Shirl In Idaho describes what it is like to live Hiding In Plain Sight. (mem from somerville)
• dsmetis writes an inspiring diary about his political awakening on dkos in How a Glimmer of Hope Turned into a World of Light. (vcmvo2)
• tbrucegodfrey offers a mea culpa and explains how he came to see the importance of straight people joining the fight for gay rights in Gay Thoughts from a Straight Dad on National Coming Out Day, Take Two while Jonzee muses on the powerful circle of love within her own family in My Father's Two Gay Brothers. (Got a Grip)
• sfbob describes why Coming Out is a Lifelong Process. (vcmvo2)
• executedtoday brings us an inspiring story of one person standing up for decency during a war in Executed this date in 1915: Edith Cavell, "patriotism is not enough". (dopper0189)

jotter has High Impact Diaries: October 11, 2008 and Week's High Impact Diaries: October 4-10, 2008.

va dare has tonight's Top Comments Sunday 10.12.08 Save an Appalachian Stream.

This is an Open Thread. Promote your own picks for notice. This Rescue Day ran from 3pm Saturday 10/12 to 3pm Sunday 10/12 (PST). PLAY NICE, there are children watching!

For most of the election, Sen. John McCain's campaign has been somewhat subtle about trying to tie Sen. Barack Obama to the former '60s radical William Ayers.

No longer. A 90-second Web ad released Oct. 8, 2008, features sinister music, side-by-side photographs of Obama and Ayers, and a series of dubious allegations about their past connections, including this one:

"Ayers and Obama ran a radical education foundation together."

Ayers was a founding member of the militant Vietnam-era anti-war group the Weathermen. He was investigated for his role in a series of domestic bombings, but the charges were dropped in 1974 due to prosecutorial misconduct. He is now an education professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago, and actively engaged in the city's civic life.

More on Barack Obama

Barack Obama picked up at least 15 newspaper endorsements this weekend, including six in swing states Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina and Missouri. John McCain, as far as we know, gained none.

The Wisconsin State Journal and The Sun of San Bernardino had backed Bush in 2004. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch called Obama's opponent, John McCain, "the incredible shrinking man" who had made a horrific pick for his running mate.

Backing Obama: In Ohio, The Blade in Toledo and the Dayton Daily News; the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, St. Louis Post-Dispatch, The Tennessean of Nashville, the Wisconsin State Journal. the Asheville (N.C.) Citizen-Times, and in California the Fresno Bee, Sacramento Bee, Contra Costa Times, The Herald of Monterrey, and The Sun of San Bernardino (which had picked Bush over Kerry).

More on Barack Obama

THIS cute chimp isn't just a primate - she is this baby tiger's BEST mate.

Loving Anjana cradles the white tiger cub after acting as surrogate mother to him and his twin brother.

And the two-year-old chimpanzee clearly isn't monkeying around, she has also raised LEOPARDS and LIONS.

Read the full story here.

Check out photos below (from Barcroft Media). See more photos here.

Alaska's Legislative Council is currently meeting over the scandal known as "Troopergate" to determine if vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin did anything improper in firing public safety commissioner Walt Monegan. Critics say the firing was merely revenge for Monegan's refusal to dismiss a trooper named Mike Wooten, with whom Palin's sister had a rather acrimonious child custody battle two years earlier.

window.location = "http://www.236.com/news/2008/10/10/sarah_palins_administration_a_1_9469.php";

More on Sarah Palin

PLEASE NOTE - This is not an open thread and is intended for diaries and discussion of downticket races.

For all the introductory stuff and links to previous diaries in the series, please look below the fold...

This Rescue Diary covers the period from 12:00 Noon, Saturday, 10/11 to 12:00 Noon EDT, Sunday, 10/12

Today's Menu Includes :
33 Diaries Overall

- 11 On House races

- With 11 covering individual Districts in 9 states

- 6 On Senate races

- Representing 4 different states

- 11 On Various election races and ballot issues

- Encompassing Governor, Secretary of State, Local, and more

- 5 General election-related diaries

Follow us for more, come on in............

NJ-Sen: It is looking as though incumbent Democrat Frank R. Lautenberg will cruise to reelection in New Jersey's Senate race, a reelection which will grant him his fifth term in the U.S. Senate.

Rasmussen. 10/7. Likely voters. MoE 4.4%

Lautenberg (D) 51
Zimmer (R) 37

With momentum currently on the Democratic side, and Zimmer having limited profile in the state, it's tough to see Lautenberg losing barring a serious gaffe.

NH-Sen: New ad from Jeanne Shaheen:

VA-05: Very good poll for Democrat Tom Perriello, who faces incumbent Republican Virgil Goode in Virginia's 5th:

Benenson Strategy Group for Tom Perriello. 10/7-9. Likely voters. MoE 5% (July numbers)

Goode (R) 48 (56)
Perriello (D) 40 (31)

No Democrat has run strongly in this district since...well, since Goode was a Democrat. Perriello has closed significant ground since July, and while a victory here would be a stunning upset, it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility.

NV-02: The first good news in a while for Republican incumbent Jon Porter; Mason-Dixon has him ahead of Democrat Dina Titus, albeit by only three points and well under 50%.

Mason-Dixon. 10/8-9. Likely voters. MoE 6% (6/9-11 numbers)

Porter (R) 43 (45)
Titus (D) 40 (42)

The good news for Democrats is that Dem internals show Titus leading, and Porter is at just 43% even in this poll, the best one to come out for him so far. With a margin of error of 6 points, as well, the usually venerable Mason-Dixon may have a slightly dubious poll here, as well.

AZ-03: DCCC internals have Democrat Bob Lord actually leading incumbent Republican John Shadegg:

Anzalone Liszt for the DCCC. 10/6-8. Likely voters. MoE 4.9%

Lord (D) 45
Shadegg (R) 44

This is in contrast to Research 2000's poll for Daily Kos, which has Shadegg leading Lord 48% to 39%.

IN-03: In this blood-red R+16.3 district, Democrat Michael Montagano - a 27-year-old attorney - apparently has a chance to pull off a stunning upset against Republican incumbent Mark Souder.

Cooper & Secrest for Michael Montagano. 10/6-7. Likely voters. MoE 4.9% (9/9-10 numbers, April numbers)

Souder (R) 44 (50, 55)
Montagano (D) 39 (37, 28)

That's quite a lot of movement for Montagano, who has also proven a solid fundraiser. Despite the redness of the district, Souder has proven a weak campaigner in the past, nearly losing in 2006 to insurgent Democratic candidate Tom Hayhurst (Souder won that election 54-46).

A Montagano victory would send shockwaves through the country, and a good barometer of an impending Democratic tidal wave. It should not be expected by any means, but this race should be a very interesting one to watch as polls close on election night.