The count has started. Polls closed in Tasmania at 5pm AEST. They'll close in NSW, Queensland, Victoria and the ACT at 6, SA and Northern Territory at 6.30, WA at 8.
My head says the Coalition will win by about 5 seats. My heart says Labor will win by any number. I'm giving the casting vote to my pancreas.
And the pancreatic verdict? It will be a hung parliament. Howard will be returned with a minority government supported by independents, who will abandon him for Labor after about three months.