I'm not going to offer congratulations or anything like that. Tonight's election result is a worse outcome than I could possibly have imagined. The Liberal/National coalition led by John Howard has been returned to office with an increased majority.
Most disturbingly, there is a distinct possibility that the government could gain control of 50% of the seats in the senate. This would give Howard, certainly in his eyes, a mandate to pursue his neo-conservative post-Menzian vision for Australia to the hilt.
Iron Chef Chinese has won the Bamboo Shoots Battle. Shane Warne is one off Murali's world record and stands a great chance of gaining it in his own right tomorrow. And we have a new niece, born in Adelaide this afternoon.
Now back to that bloody election.
The Greens challenge is over in the lower house. It just remains to be seen how they do in the Senate.
They have lost the Wollongong seat of Cunningham, coming third with 20% of the primary vote. They've come third in Grayndler, also with 20% of the primary vote. Jenny Leong had high hopes of beating the talented Tanya Plibersek in Sydney, but has also finished third at 22%. They also had hopes of knocking off Lindsay Tanner in Melbourne, but he succeeded in picking up most of the former Democrat vote. The Greens came third here as well, with 19%.
Labor does not seem to be making any ground on the Coalition. If anything, the Libs have gained votes, although this does appear to be in direct proportion to the votes One Nation has lost. The rednecks are back home again. The Democrats have been decimated, their vote seems to be shared between the Greens and Family First, ie, chalk and cheese.
Currently the ABC are saying that the Libs have picked up four seats from Labor (Greenway, Bass, Braddon, Wakefield), while Labor have regained Cunningham from the Greens, who will be unrepresented in the lower house. They are calling a Coalition majority of 20. Bloody hell.
The polls haven't closed in West Australia yet, but I think we can call this already as a Coalition win - and possibly with an increased majority.
But there's an interesting stat I've noticed. The Liberals have a swing of 3.3% on latest figures nationwide. The One Nation Party has a negative swing of 3.3%.
Wonder why....
The count has started. Polls closed in Tasmania at 5pm AEST. They'll close in NSW, Queensland, Victoria and the ACT at 6, SA and Northern Territory at 6.30, WA at 8.
My head says the Coalition will win by about 5 seats. My heart says Labor will win by any number. I'm giving the casting vote to my pancreas.
And the pancreatic verdict? It will be a hung parliament. Howard will be returned with a minority government supported by independents, who will abandon him for Labor after about three months.
October 8, 10:55 pm.
http://www.empirenotes.org/#08oct047
October 8, 10:55 pm. Apparently, the scales remain firmly in place. ABC News, polling a rather small group that was 35% Democrat, 32% Republican, 29% Independent, got results of 44% thinking Kerry had won, 41% Bush, and 13% a tie. The fact that neither Bush nor Cheney has answered a single one of even the feeble attacks levied by Kerry and Edwards on how they have conducted the occupation seems n ...
I meant to do this earlier in the week, oh well. Now it's halfway through polling day in the eastern states.
In broad terms, I am advocating an above-the-line vote in the Senate in each state for The Greens. They, and the Democrats, have demonstrated their value as minorities in the Senate holding the balance of power. The Democrats, while looking good on their policy documents, have imploded over the past couple of years, perhaps fatally.
