John Howard wanted to be the new Bob Menzies. Today, it was finally confirmed that he has become the new Stanley Bruce.

There's a difference, though. After Prime Minister Bruce lost the seat of Flinders in 1929, he stood again at the next election in 1931, and won, returning to parliament (albeit as a backbencher) until 1933.

Kerry Nettle's defeat in the New South Wales senate race is one of the disappointments of this federal election. She was squeezed out by the major parties who between them seem certain to claim all six NSW senate seats. It represents remarkable good luck for Ursula Stephens, who was booted down to number three on the Labor ticket. Her return represents a nett gain of one NSW senator for the ALP at the Greens' expense.

Did you notice that John Howard did not explicitly state anything about stepping down as Liberal Party leader last night? Even though he talked about the future opposition leader, and endorsing Peter Costello for the job, it was taken for granted that he would not hang around as Leader of the Opposition.

I'm betting that he hopes he loses in Bennelong so that he can get the agony of defeat over with quicker. Irony is, he might yet be saved by postal votes. All that means is that Maxine McKew will win the by-election in early 2008.

There were no blogs in 1996. No Wikipedia, no Youtube, not even a Google. There was a CricInfo, and I used my dialup terminal connection to follow the live scores on a lynx browser, and to catch up on the archives through gopher. That was how I kept up with the Cricket World Cup on March 2, 1996, the last time Australia had a Labor government.

It was the night that Paul Keating's government was knocked off its perch in an electoral landslide. John Howard completed one of the great comebacks of Australian political history to take the Prime Ministership on a wave of popularity emanating from working-class western Sydney.

Not easy to interpret senate figures so early in the piece, but a couple of observations so far:

The Democrats are history. They have performed dismally in Queensland (0.09 quotas on first preference at the moment). They're on 0.11 quotas in Victoria which makes it damn hard for Lyn Allison. In New South Wales, they've been outpolled by the DLP, which has been spent force in Australian politics from the time Vince Gair was despatched to Dublin.

I'm calling a Labor Party victory now.

Yee-ha!

It's not ready to call yet. Labor is getting closer to winning the election, but not yet. I still think John Howard is gone. Malcolm Turnbull appears safe. Peter Costello was looking shaky in Higgins for a short while. The incredibly bad Danna Vale has made it home in Hughes. I think Bob Baldwin has retained Paterson, but I know from past elections that this electorate can take days to decide.

No worries for Anthony Albanese in Grayndler. It looks, however, as if the Greens have slightly lost ground since 2004. Daniel Caffery will finish in second place for the Liberals before disappearing into obscurity again.

The overall election is still in the balance, but at 7.30pm I'm going to call Bennelong as a win for Maxine McKew.

GOODBYE JOHNNY HOWARD!!!

Polls have closed in NSW, ACT, Victoria, Tasmania. Sky News are calling a Labor win on the strength of their exit polling already. The AEC tells us that 0.00% of the vote has been counted, with 150 seats still in doubt.

My prediction for the final seat count: ALP 82, L/NP 66, Independent 2.

Today I voted in my twelfth House of Representatives election. For the first time, I have not given my first preference to a Labor candidate.

As in 2004, I'm laying my voting cards on the table in full. In the House of Representatives seat of Grayndler:

3 Pip Hinman (Socialist Alliance)
5 Daniel Caffery (Liberal Party)
6 Ehab Hennien (Christian Democratic Party (FNG))